Investors are looking ahead to Anthropic’s potential growth as the AI company prepares for a possible major IPO, using future revenue estimates to determine its valuation.
Investors Focus on 2028 Revenue Forecasts
Anthropic is projecting revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028, according to people familiar with the company’s financials. The forecast is significantly higher than the company’s previously disclosed $47 billion revenue run rate from May.
Bankers and investors are reportedly using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on future projections to evaluate the company. This approach is common for high-growth software companies that have not yet reached mature profitability.
Looking two years ahead is less typical, but investors are applying this approach due to the rapid expansion of Anthropic’s business and the difficulty of valuing an AI company with substantial infrastructure costs.
AI Spending Creates Valuation Challenges
Anthropic continues to invest heavily in computing capacity, model training and hiring. Investors are betting that revenue growth will eventually outpace these costs, allowing the company’s margins to expand as it scales.
The company’s valuation approach follows similar examples from other high-growth companies. Cerebras Systems referenced future revenue expectations before its IPO, while SpaceX projections extended several years ahead before the company went public.
Finding Comparable Companies
Cloud infrastructure company Cloudflare, enterprise software company Palantir and SpaceX are among the companies being considered as valuation comparisons for Anthropic.
Public company comparisons help investors determine appropriate valuation multiples by examining businesses with similar growth patterns, technology exposure and market opportunities.
Palantir is viewed as a reference point for AI-focused growth companies, Cloudflare provides a comparison for high-growth software and infrastructure businesses, and SpaceX offers an example of a company valued partly on expectations for future scale.
Valuing Anthropic Beyond Current Earnings
Traditional companies are often valued based on earnings or EBITDA, but investors believe Anthropic’s current financial results may not fully reflect its long-term potential.
The company’s spending on GPUs, computing capacity, AI model development and hiring is intended to support expansion. Investors expect these costs could represent a smaller share of revenue as the business grows.
Anthropic’s revenue run rate increased from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $47 billion by May. The company has also projected continued rapid growth, including expectations for significant revenue expansion during 2026.
Questions Around Long-Term AI Growth
The valuation case for Anthropic depends on whether its current investments can translate into sustained revenue growth, improved efficiency and stronger margins over time.
Some investors remain cautious about whether AI companies can deliver the level of productivity gains needed to justify extremely high valuations.
